Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – January 28, 2026

As of Wednesday, January 28, 2026, the Austin real estate market continues to operate in a slow, supply heavy environment where listings outnumber buyer demand and pricing power remains limited. Active residential listings are currently at 12,764, which is 11.4 percent higher than this time last year. While inventory has declined significantly from the prior peak of 18,146 listings reached in June 2025, the current level remains well above what would be considered balanced market conditions. More than half of all active listings, 51.4 percent, have already had at least one price reduction, reinforcing that sellers are still adjusting to today’s demand reality.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for January 28, 2026.

From a composition standpoint, resale listings continue to dominate the market. Of the 12,764 active listings, 8,789 are resale homes and 3,975 are new construction. This distinction matters because new construction continues to post higher activity levels than resale, while resale inventory bears the brunt of pricing friction. For buyers, this creates opportunity, particularly in resale neighborhoods where sellers face longer timelines and reduced leverage.

New listing activity remains restrained. Cumulative new listings from January to date total 3,017, which is down 21.2 percent year over year and essentially flat relative to the long term average. This decline in seller participation signals that many homeowners remain unwilling or unable to list unless they are highly motivated. While this has prevented inventory from reaccelerating back toward mid 2025 levels, it has not been enough to materially shift leverage back to sellers.

Pending listings tell a similar story. Current pending listings stand at 3,650, up just 1.1 percent year over year. When broken down, 2,162 of those pendings are resale homes and 1,488 are new construction. On a cumulative basis, pending activity from January to date totals 2,448, which is down 21.6 percent year over year and 15.6 percent below historical averages. This gap between new listings and pendings continues to weigh on overall market velocity.

One of the clearest leading indicators in today’s Austin housing market is the New Listing to Pending Ratio. That ratio currently sits at 0.68 for the year, well below the 25 year average of 0.82. Simply put, fewer homes are going under contract relative to the number coming to market. Year to date, new listings exceed pending contracts by 569 units. Historically, markets with ratios below long term averages tend to experience prolonged absorption timelines and continued pricing pressure, especially in resale segments.

The Activity Index reinforces this slowdown. The overall Activity Index for 2026 is currently 22.2 percent, down from 24.0 percent at the same point last year. New construction activity remains relatively strong at 27.24 percent, while resale activity sits at just 19.74 percent. That places the resale market squarely in the contraction or danger zone, a phase characterized by rising inventory, reduced buyer urgency, and downward pricing pressure. Markets operating in this range tend to reward patience and negotiation rather than speed.

Months of Inventory further confirms the buyer leaning structure. Austin’s overall Months of Inventory is now 4.54, up 13.3 percent year over year from 4.00 last January. While this does not yet represent extreme oversupply, it firmly removes the market from seller controlled territory. When focusing on resale inventory only, many cities and zip codes are already operating in buyer advantage or buyer control ranges, where excess supply limits price growth and extends days on market.

Despite slower contract activity, closed sales have held up better than expected. A total of 1,790 homes have sold year to date, which is down 4.8 percent year over year but still 17.4 percent above long term averages. This indicates that while fewer buyers are entering the market, those who do are completing transactions. However, sales normalized for population and agent count tell a more cautious story. Sales per 100,000 residents are down 6.9 percent year over year and remain 16.2 percent below average, while sales per 1,000 Realtors are slightly up year over year but still 12.2 percent below historical norms. Competition among agents remains elevated due to limited transaction volume.

Pricing trends continue to reflect a post peak correction. The average sold price in January stands at $562,597, which is down 17.5 percent from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. Median pricing has adjusted even further. The median sold price is now $415,000, down from $550,000 at the peak, representing a decline of approximately 24.5 percent. When compared to prices from 36 months ago, median values are down 7.77 percent, confirming that this correction is not limited to recent volatility but reflects a broader reset.

Price performance varies meaningfully by price tier. Over the past year, the bottom 25th percentile of homes saw prices decline by 5.56 percent, while the top 25th percentile experienced modest appreciation of 2.56 percent. This split highlights the affordability ceiling facing entry level buyers, while higher priced homes benefit from stronger equity positions and more flexible buyers.

At the city level, price trends remain overwhelmingly negative. Only four cities posted year over year median price gains, while twenty six recorded declines. The Home Value Index shows that 83.3 percent of cities are still considered overvalued relative to fundamentals, with only a small fraction fairly valued or undervalued. This imbalance suggests limited upside in the near term without meaningful changes in affordability or demand.

Market efficiency metrics further confirm sluggish conditions. The absorption rate, defined as the ratio of sold homes to active listings, currently sits at 10.39 percent, far below the historical average of 31.52 percent. Markets with absorption rates near current levels tend to favor buyers, with slower turnover and greater pricing flexibility. The Market Flow Score, which combines multiple turnover metrics into a single index, is just 0.72 compared to a historical average of 6.57. This indicates that inventory is moving slowly through the system and that demand remains constrained.

Looking ahead, long term projections help frame expectations. Assuming the Austin housing market has reached the bottom of this correction and resumes its 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.459 percent, it would take approximately 79 months, or until July 2032, for the median sold price to return to its prior peak near $551,000. While this projection assumes steady appreciation, it underscores how extended the recovery timeline can be after a rapid run up followed by a correction.

For buyers, today’s Austin housing market offers leverage, selection, and negotiating power, particularly in resale segments. For sellers, pricing correctly from day one and understanding local inventory conditions is critical. Investors should focus on cash flow, long term fundamentals, and localized demand rather than appreciation driven strategies. For real estate agents, success in this environment requires education, realistic expectation setting, and strong market knowledge.

The Austin real estate market has shifted from speed to scrutiny. Data now drives outcomes, and patience is once again an asset.

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FAQ SECTION

Is the Austin housing market favoring buyers or sellers right now?

The Austin housing market is currently favoring buyers based on multiple supply and demand indicators. Active listings remain elevated, months of inventory has increased to 4.54, and more than half of listings have reduced their price. The absorption rate is far below historical norms, which means homes are selling more slowly. Buyers today have more negotiating power than they have had in several years.

Are home prices still falling in Austin?

Yes, pricing pressure remains present across most of the Austin market. Median sold prices are down significantly from the 2022 peak, and year over year declines are widespread across cities. While higher priced homes have shown modest stability, entry level and mid range properties continue to face affordability constraints. Price stabilization will likely require improved demand rather than reduced supply alone.

How strong is buyer demand in Austin right now?

Buyer demand remains constrained when measured against historical benchmarks. Pending listings and the Activity Index are both below last year and well below long term averages. The New Listing to Pending Ratio also confirms that fewer buyers are absorbing new inventory. Demand exists, but it is selective and highly price sensitive.

What does months of inventory tell us about the Austin market?

Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace. At 4.54 months, Austin is no longer in a seller dominated environment. Many resale markets are already in buyer advantage or buyer control conditions. This typically leads to longer listing times and increased price competition.

When could Austin home prices return to their peak?

Based on long term appreciation trends, it could take several years for Austin home prices to return to prior peak levels. Assuming steady appreciation from current levels, projections suggest a return to peak median pricing around mid 2032. This timeline highlights the importance of realistic expectations for sellers and long term planning for buyers and investors.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.