Active residential listings currently stand at 12,778. That figure is meaningfully lower than the prior peak of 18,146 recorded in late June 2025, representing a reduction of 5,368 listings from the market high. Even with this pullback, inventory remains elevated compared to last year, running 11.6 percent higher than January 2025. This tells us supply pressure has eased from its extremes, but has not disappeared. More than half of all active listings, 51.6 percent, have experienced at least one price reduction. That level of price adjustment reinforces the idea that sellers are still competing for a limited pool of qualified buyers.
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Breaking inventory down further, 3,969 of today’s active listings are new construction while 8,809 are resale homes. This matters for pricing strategy because new construction continues to absorb demand at a faster pace than resale. Builders remain more flexible on incentives and pricing, which is pulling buyer activity away from resale listings that are slow to adjust.
New listings activity remains muted. From January to date, cumulative new listings total 2,906. That is down 24.1 percent year over year and sits 3.7 percent below the long term average. This slowdown in new supply is one of the most important dynamics supporting market stability right now. Fewer sellers are rushing into the market, which helps prevent inventory from rebuilding toward 2024 and mid 2025 levels.
Pending listings provide a clearer look at buyer intent. Today’s pending count is 3,610, which is 0.8 percent higher than this time last year. This is a small gain, but it is notable because it marks one of the first positive year over year pending readings seen in months. Of those pendings, 1,473 are new construction and 2,137 are resale. Buyers remain selective, but they are clearly still transacting when pricing aligns with current affordability realities.
Cumulative pending activity from January to date totals 2,321 contracts. While this is down 25.7 percent year over year and nearly 20 percent below the long term average, it reflects a market that has stabilized at a lower demand baseline rather than one that is deteriorating further. For the Austin real estate forecast, this matters more than headline volume. Stability suggests buyers have accepted current pricing and rate conditions, even if enthusiasm remains restrained.
The Activity Index reinforces this interpretation. The index currently sits at 22.0 percent, down from 23.8 percent one year ago. This places the resale market squarely in the softening phase, where transactions continue but at a slower and more selective pace. New construction activity is stronger, with an Activity Index of 27.07 percent, while resale lags at 19.52 percent. This gap explains much of the pricing pressure sellers continue to face in the resale segment.
The New Listing to Pending Ratio is another critical signal. The monthly ratio currently stands at 0.67, well below the 25 year average of 0.82. Year to date, there are 585 more new listings than pending contracts. While that imbalance still favors buyers, it is notably less severe than what was seen through much of 2024 and early 2025. This narrowing gap suggests the market is finding a slower but more sustainable equilibrium.
Months of Inventory now sits at 4.54, up 13.5 percent from last year’s 4.00 reading. This level places the broader market in a mild buyer advantage environment. When isolating resale inventory, conditions vary significantly by area. Some submarkets remain balanced, while others are clearly experiencing excess supply. This divergence explains why some homes sell quickly while others sit for extended periods despite broader market stability.
Sales volume continues to outperform historical averages despite softer demand. There have been 1,824 sold properties so far this year, just 3.0 percent below last year but nearly 20 percent above the long term average. However, sales per 100,000 residents and sales per 1,000 Realtors both remain below historical norms. This confirms that transaction volume is being supported by fewer, more motivated participants rather than broad based demand growth.
Pricing remains the most decisive factor. The average sold price in January is $567,704, down nearly 17 percent from the May 2022 peak. The median sold price tells a more direct affordability story, currently at $415,000. That represents a 24.55 percent decline from the $550,000 peak. Compared to prices from 36 months ago, median values are still down 7.77 percent. This reset has brought prices closer to income supported levels, but affordability remains stretched for many households.
Looking ahead, long term appreciation models provide helpful context. Using Austin’s 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.459 percent, a return from today’s median price to the prior peak would take approximately 79 months, projecting a recovery timeline into mid 2032. This does not imply straight line growth, but it highlights that price recovery is likely to be gradual rather than rapid.
Price behavior also differs meaningfully by segment. The bottom quartile of the market saw year over year price declines of roughly 5.6 percent, while the top quartile experienced modest appreciation of just over 2 percent. This bifurcation underscores how affordability constraints are hitting entry level and mid priced homes harder, while higher end buyers remain more insulated.
Absorption remains low by historical standards. The Sold to Active ratio is currently 9.84 percent, compared to a long term average of 31.52 percent. This confirms the market is operating at a slower turnover pace. The Market Flow Score reinforces this, registering at 0.46 versus a historical average of 6.57. Inventory is moving, but it is doing so cautiously and selectively.
For buyers, today’s Austin housing market offers leverage, choice, and negotiation power, especially in resale homes. For sellers, success requires pricing discipline, realistic timelines, and an understanding that today’s buyers are data driven and patient. For investors and agents, the market favors strategy over speculation. Volume exists, but only for properties aligned with current demand and affordability thresholds.
Austin real estate is no longer defined by rapid appreciation or panic driven selling. Instead, it is operating in a measured reset phase that prioritizes balance and sustainability. This Austin market update confirms that while the market is not booming, it is functioning, and that clarity alone is a meaningful improvement from recent volatility.
